Analysts are currently assessing the possibility of Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a significant drop to $70,000 within the next ten days. This outlook is driven by a pricing model indicating that the prevailing US-led trade war could shake investor confidence in risk assets, thereby undermining Bitcoin’s price stability.
In his recent analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson expressed concerns that Bitcoin may revert to its all-time high from 2021. As he highlights, deteriorating price expectations reflect the impact of anticipated “higher than expected” US trade tariffs, which have begun to resonate deeply within the financial markets.
$70,000: A Practical Bottom for Bitcoin?
Peterson queries, “Bitcoin to $70k in 10 days?” His skepticism is informed by a chart he shared that juxtaposes Bitcoin’s historical bear markets alongside his Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric, a tool previously proven to gauge long-term price bottoms accurately.
While Peterson stresses that the chart does not predict the future, it provides plausible data-driven expectations for Bitcoin’s trajectory. He notes, “If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.” This perspective pushes him to reflect on previous market dynamics, leading to some unease regarding the cryptocurrency’s current momentum.
“If it continues to track along the 75th percentile bear market range, then 70k would be the practical bottom.”
Just last month, the LPF metric indicated a 95% certainty that BTC/USD could maintain the 2021 highs as a robust support level. This assessment underscores the fragility of Bitcoin’s price dynamics, which have varied significantly within short spans; indeed, Peterson notes that in just two days, Bitcoin’s chance of a positive month plummeted from 75% to 75% likelihood of a negative month.
As the current market analytics indicate, fear is permeating among investors, with many seeking to shield against potential downturns. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a significant skew towards protective puts suggests a demand for downside risk mitigation has emerged, reminiscent of market sentiments observed when Bitcoin hovered around the $20K range.
However, Glassnode also pointed out that Bitcoin’s current performance does not reflect a stark post-tariff capitulation similar to what has been seen in traditional equities. The disconnect between growing market anxiety and a lack of a substantial price collapse makes this moment historically noteworthy.
“Panic is elevated, but price is holding. That’s often what a bottom looks like.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
