On April 30, Vetle Lunde, the head of research at K33 Research, made headlines with a striking post on Crypto X, revealing that Bitcoin’s 7-day volatility had hit a remarkable 563-day low. This development marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, drawing attention from both traders and investors.
BTC 7-day volatility hits 563 day low pic.twitter.com/9xvvQ3t6N7
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) April 30, 2025
Simultaneously, 30-day Bitcoin price volatility against the US dollar has consistently declined. According to data from BitBo and TheBlock, this trend of decreasing volatility has been observed since 2011, accelerating since 2021.
Low Bitcoin Volatility: Bullish or Bearish for Price?
While historically low volatility can be interpreted as a bearish signal for cryptocurrencies and stocks alike—often a sign that traders are not confident enough to invest actively—Bitcoin’s unique circumstances complicate this narrative. Traditionally, low volatility occurs in bear markets, where prices stabilize, and sharp corrections become less frequent.
However, it is crucial to contextualize this low volatility within the broader market picture, especially as Bitcoin has experienced a significant price rally backed by Wall Street funds and crypto exchanges. Traders might find it challenging to see this as a bearish indication when the chart technicals depict a thriving asset.
Moreover, it is possible that Bitcoin’s impressive market capitalization, hovering around the $2 trillion mark as May begins, has led to smoother liquidity. The influence of whale participants has diminished, reducing the erratic price movements that once characterized this digital asset.
Fidelity’s Findings: A Broader Context
This shift towards lower volatility can be viewed as a bullish milestone for Bitcoin. It signifies that the network has expanded so rapidly in capitalization that it now behaves less like a small, unstable vessel and more like a large, stable ship navigating the ocean of investments.
A report from Fidelity Digital Assets highlighted that while Bitcoin retains its reputation for volatility, it is currently less volatile than many prominent mega-cap stocks. In fact, Bitcoin’s fluctuations are milder than those of 33 S&P 500 stocks. As recently as late 2023, 92 S&P 500 stocks exhibited greater volatility than Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the report emphasizes a crucial projection: Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to continue its downward trend. This aligns with the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, which has rebounded significantly from early April lows of under $75,000, approaching the $100,000 milestone.
This momentous achievement in Bitcoin’s volatility signals a pivotal evolution in the cryptocurrency’s landscape, showcasing its maturation as an asset in the financial structure.
The insights and analyses discussed are taken from the original article, The Baby’s Getting Big: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 563-Day Low on CryptoPotato.
