Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped to its lowest recorded level of 8%, according to recent data from Glassnode. This decline highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, as well as Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class.
The four-year period was specifically chosen to align with Bitcoin’s halving cycle, which traditionally influences market dynamics, while also capturing the typical bull and bear market cycles that tend to unfold within similar timeframes. In March 2021, Bitcoin was trading around $60,000, closely following the peak of the previous market cycle. Notably, this diminishing CAGR could be expected; as Bitcoin continues its journey towards maturity, its volatility and potential for dramatic returns are likely to lessen over time.
However, it’s essential to recognize that the CAGR metric is highly susceptible to the reference points used for calculation. In 2021, Bitcoin was nearing a peak during a blow-off top early in the cycle, while in March 2025, reaching an $80,000 price point could potentially signify a cycle bottom.
In parallel, the ether (ETH)-to-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has also entered negative CAGR territory at 6%. This shift reflects Ethereum’s native token’s underperformance compared to Bitcoin. A major contributor to this trend has been Ethereum’s price remaining largely flat since February 2021, with current values dipping below $2,000.
At present, the ETH/BTC ratio stands at 0.024, marking the lowest level since late 2020. This performance indicates not only the shifting tides within the cryptocurrency market but also the necessity for investors to attentively monitor these trends.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
