Bitcoin (BTC) continues to follow the trajectory of its 2017 cycle. Despite recent market turbulence, driven by escalating tariff tensions between the U.S and its neighbouring countries, as well as China, Bitcoin remains resilient.
Currently, Bitcoin is up approximately 525% from its cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022. This performance is comparable to the same stage in the 2017 cycle, where Bitcoin rose 533%.
Another perspective on evaluating Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior involves measuring returns from previous all-time highs. The last cycle’s market peak occurred in April 2021 at around $64,000, although Bitcoin’s all-time high in nominal terms was $69,000 in November 2021. Notably, many on-chain indicators suggest that April 2021 marked the cycle’s true top.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has shown remarkable consistency in tracking these previous cycles. Moreover, it has remained range-bound within a $90,000 to $109,000 channel for the past 2.5 months, even amidst heightened market volatility. This trading channel has led Bitcoin to continuously test both the upper and lower bounds of its current price range.
In addition, previous CoinDesk research identified $91,000 as a significant local bottom for Bitcoin. Analysts and investors alike are keeping a close eye on this level as it could determine the next steps for the cryptocurrency’s market trajectory.
