After an impressive outing in the past week, the price of Bitcoin seems to be in a cool-off period, sitting nearly 4% away from its recent all-time high. This weekend’s performance somewhat resembles the typical movement of the crypto market at the end of the week in 2025.
However, the latest on-chain observations reveal that a group of investors might be responsible for the sluggishness of Bitcoin’s price over the past day. These recent signs point to the possibility of the bull cycle nearing its final stages.
Here’s When BTC Price Could Begin To Witness Significant Correction
In a new post on the social media platform X, investment data firm Alphractal revealed that Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) are beginning to distribute their coins. The short-term holders are known to be the most reactive group of investors, as evidenced by BTC holders reducing their holdings following recent increases in Bitcoin’s price.
This on-chain revelation is based on the changes in the Bitcoin Supply Held By Short-Term Holders indicator, which tracks the total amount of BTC owned by investors for less than 155 days. As shown in the accompanying chart, this metric has been dwindling over the past few weeks, indicating ongoing distribution by short-term investors.
Historical data suggests that when the supply held by STH witnesses an abrupt decline, Bitcoin’s price is typically nearing major cycle tops. In essence, reactive investors offload their assets as prices increase, which in turn slows down demand for the coin. Alphractal notes that this behavior is “a classic sign” indicating that the bull cycle could be approaching its final stages.
The on-chain analytics firm also highlighted that the Short-Term Holder realized price currently sits at $94,500, serving as the final support level to prevent this investor group from incurring losses. Conversely, the Long-Term Holder realized price stands at around $33,000, suggesting a clear behavioral divergence between long-term and short-term investors.
Nevertheless, Alphractal pointed out that Bitcoin still managed to reach new all-time highs in 2021, despite the STH distribution. Thus, the market intelligence platform believes there remains potential for some upside movement in BTC, even though macro on-chain signals and the halving cycle pattern hint at a significant correction that could begin after October 2025.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $109,000, reflecting a 0.4% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 5% in the last seven days.
