Bitcoin has just broken above the $100K psychological level for the first time in months, signaling a decisive shift in momentum towards buyers. With the price climbing sharply and on-chain metrics suggesting positive signs, this current leg indicates potential bullish continuation, albeit with key levels that require close monitoring.
Technical Analysis
The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, BTC has successfully pushed through the $100K resistance level and is presently trading around the $103K mark. This breakout followed a clean reclaim of both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and a retest of the ascending trendline that has held for several months.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in overbought territory, surpassing the 75 mark, reflecting robust bullish momentum. However, this also raises caution for a potential short-term cooldown. If the breakout holds, the next significant resistance level to watch will be around $108K, while the $99K region is set to serve as a new key support level.
The 4-Hour Chart
Examining the 4-hour chart, we observe that the price breakout occurred from a rising wedge that had formed over the past week. The price initially broke above the $97K–$98K range and rapidly ascended to the $103K area.
Momentum indicators, including the RSI, confirm this strength, although there are early signs of short-term exhaustion. This could imply a possible retest of the breakout zone around $100K or even the $98K level prior to any further upward movement. Nevertheless, the overall structure remains favorable for more upside unless the $96K–$97K zone fails to maintain its support.
On-Chain Analysis
Exchange Reserve
From an on-chain analysis perspective, exchange reserves have continued to decline, reaching a multi-year low. This ongoing decrease supports a long-term bullish perspective: less BTC available on exchanges typically indicates accumulation and reduced selling pressure.
Furthermore, it suggests that long-term holders are hesitant to offload their coins, even at these elevated price levels. The broader trend of diminishing exchange balances reinforces the current breakout and adds credence to the sustainability of the rally, even if minor pullbacks occur.
The analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s recent price movements and the accompanying indicators favor continued bullish action, making it a pivotal moment for investors and traders alike.
