Following another impressive weekly performance, the price of Bitcoin is now trading above the psychologically relevant $100,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency jumped as high as $103,800, marking its highest price level since January 2025. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the BTC price may be in a critical make-or-break season.
Is A BTC Parabolic Rally On The Horizon?
Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci recently took to the social media platform X to reveal that the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric has surpassed a critical threshold. According to Kesmeci, this on-chain development indicates a potential shift in market dynamics that could significantly impact the price action of BTC.
The Advanced NVT metric offers a refined perspective compared to the traditional NVT indicator, as it calculates the ratio of Network Value (market cap) to the volume (in USD) transferred through the blockchain on a daily basis. By capturing extreme valuation conditions more effectively, this metric serves as a valuable tool for analyzing market signals.
When the Advanced NVT metric rises above its long-term moving average by more than two standard deviations (2xSD), it indicates that growth in Bitcoin’s market cap is not aligning with the volume being transacted on the blockchain. Historically, such situations have often led to either a significant price rally or, conversely, a sharp market correction.
Kesmeci’s data shows that Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT is currently above the 2xSD threshold, although it is uncertain whether it will remain at this level. He noted that the indicator typically does not stay elevated above 2xSD for long unless Bitcoin is poised for a parabolic price rally.
Kesmeci commented:
“However, with a parabolic rally, it is possible that it could move much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally following the approval of Spot ETFs.”
Additionally, he emphasized that while historical patterns suggest that a Bitcoin Advanced NVT reading above 2xSD often precedes a rally, it is not guaranteed that the indicator will revert below 2xSD. Investors should keep a close watch on this BTC metric, especially given that the premier cryptocurrency finds itself at a crucial juncture that may define its long-term trajectory.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
In the past week, the price of BTC has reclaimed a six-figure valuation for the first time since slipping below the $100,000 level back in February. As of this writing, the market leader is trading just above the $103,100 mark, reflecting a 0.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Notably, on a weekly basis, Bitcoin’s value has surged over 6%.
