As the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the movie ‘The Dark Knight,’ who flips coins to make decisions, confident of controlling the fate irrespective of the outcome.
It’s a classic case of ‘heads I win, tails you lose,’ which means that bitcoin bulls will likely emerge victorious after the impending jobs report, regardless of whether the data reveals labor market strength or weakness.
This scenario has been intensified by President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping tariffs that impact 180 nations, spurring forward-looking markets to factor in rising recession risks and the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report, which traditionally bolsters the dollar and exerts pressure on risk assets like BTC, may be brushed aside as outdated, ignoring the recent developments stemming from Trump’s policies. As a result, any dip in BTC prices following a potentially positive NFP report could be quickly reversed, leading to gains.
Conversely, if the jobs data disappoints, it would likely amplify recession fears and increase confidence in Fed rate cut bets, thereby reigniting risk-taking in financial markets.
As of now, bitcoin has traded at $84,190, having dipped below $82,000 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk data. The fact that prices have remained above March’s low of $77,000, despite peak tariff uncertainty, hints at seller fatigue and suggests potential for upward price movement.
Volmex’s bitcoin one-day implied volatility index stands at an annualized 65%, signaling an anticipated price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours.
The jobs data is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is projected at 130,000, down from February’s tally of 151,000. The jobless rate is expected to have increased to 4.2% from 4.1%.
In anticipation of the data release, rates traders are predicting 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first adjustment expected in June, as indicated by the CME’s FedWatch tool.
