Bitcoin (BTC) is fast approaching the $100,000 mark as U.S. President Donald Trump has teased the potential for a significant trade deal, with reports indicating that it could involve the United Kingdom.
This recent upswing in prices aligns with the cryptocurrency’s broader bullish technical setup, reflecting a positive sentiment in traditional markets. At present, Asian stocks are trading higher, and futures tied to the S&P 500 have risen by 0.6%.
However, several factors suggest that the journey to a $100,000 breakout may not be a smooth ascent.
Wall Street Journal Counters the Optimism
According to the Wall Street Journal, the trade deal that Trump hinted at on Truth Social could merely be a “framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments.”
This indicates that the much-anticipated announcement might only lay the groundwork for discussions on a potential trade deal that could materialize weeks or even months later. Consequently, any bullish momentum in Bitcoin could wane as the initial optimism fades.
Resistance at $99,900
As previously discussed on CoinDesk, the psychological barrier at $99,900 may present challenges due to expected increasing selling pressure from those who purchased Bitcoin around these levels early in the year, as well as profit-taking behavior from long-term holders.
Coinbase Premium Indicator
The Coinbase premium indicator, which indicates the price spread between Bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price on Coinbase and its tether-denominated price on Binance, serves as a proxy for U.S.-based investor demand.
Historically, extended BTC bull runs have been characterized by a corresponding uptick in the Coinbase premium; however, since late April, the seven-day moving average of the Coinbase premium has exhibited a bearish divergence from the price.
Bearish RSI Divergence
Despite Bitcoin reaching a new multi-week high during the Asian market session, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI)—an essential tool for measuring momentum and identifying overbought or oversold conditions—failed to reflect a similar ascent.
This resulting bearish divergence implies that the market’s momentum may indeed be weakening, signaling potential caution for investors.
