This week, the crypto market prepares for the expiration of approximately 26,000 Bitcoin options contracts scheduled for Friday, May 9. These options have a substantial notional value of around $2.57 billion. Such an event can often lead to considerable market movements, and with the continued upward trajectory of spot markets, attention is drawn towards how this expiry might influence trading behavior.
Understanding Bitcoin Options Expiry
The current batch of Bitcoin options carries a put/call ratio of 0.91, indicating a balanced positioning between short and long sellers, with a slight inclination towards puts. This scenario suggests that traders are relatively cautious, expecting some downward movement. Furthermore, the identified max pain point stands at $93,000, which is $10,000 lower than current market prices, suggesting that the most significant losses on expiry will occur if Bitcoin’s price settles near this level.
Open interest (OI) analysis reveals that the prevailing value of BTC options contracts awaiting expiration is highest at the $100,000 strike price—approximately $1.8 billion—as bullish traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential. Meanwhile, there is notable OI of over $1 billion at both the $80,000 and $85,000 strike prices, although the likelihood of reaching those levels in the short term appears slim as markets exhibit bullish characteristics.
Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit. $BTC: $2.57B notional | Put/Call: 0.91 | Max Pain: $93K $ETH: $257M notional | Put/Call: 1.20 | Max Pain: $1.8K
BTC just tagged $99K.
With expiry ahead, positioning… pic.twitter.com/w0uyUV5Cvg— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 8, 2025
In the lead-up to this expiry, sentiments among traders were less optimistic, described by derivatives provider Greeks Live as a phase of “boring chop,” where traders aimed to exploit time decay while hedging against downside risks. Yet, this stagnant sentiment shifted dramatically following a 5% increase in total market capitalization, which resulted in Bitcoin breaking free from its previously confined trading range.
“While rate cuts now look less likely by June, any dovish surprise or hint at easing could fuel a sharp relief rally across risk assets,” commented Deribit in a market update earlier this week.
Apart from the Bitcoin options expiring today, approximately 164,000 Ethereum contracts with a notional value of $257 million are also set to expire, further stressing the day’s overall crypto options landscape. The combined notional value of all options expiring today is around $2.8 billion, which can have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Crypto Market Outlook
As the total capitalization of the crypto market reaches a three-month high of $3.33 trillion—predominantly driven by Bitcoin and Ethereum—the market is experiencing a surge in momentum. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin prices skyrocketed by 4.3%, hitting an intraday high of $103,461 during late trading on Thursday, marking one of the highest trading points since January.
Despite the exuberance in Bitcoin, Ethereum has stolen the spotlight with a remarkable 20% increase, surpassing $2,200 on Friday due to the successful deployment of the long-awaited Pectra upgrade. This revitalization has propelled Ethereum more than 50% higher over the past month, indicating strong investor confidence.
Other altcoins are also witnessing favorable returns, with assets like Dogecoin, Cardano, Sui, Chainlink, Avalanche, and Stellar recording impressive double-digit gains.
As the market continues to evolve, traders should remain vigilant and consider the implications of today’s options expiry within their broader investment strategies and market engagement. The current dynamics underscore the intricate relationship between options contracts and cryptocurrency pricing, which can rapidly alter investor sentiment and market movements.
