The first quarter of 2025 was dominated by talks of the altcoin season, a common phenomenon as bull cycles reach their conclusion. Historically, capital tends to rotate from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies as investors seek maximum gains before a downturn in the market. However, the narrative has diverged markedly this year, with many large-cap assets not experiencing the capital rotation typical of previous cycles. Current on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin continues to overshadow the altcoin market, consistently outperforming all categories of alternative coins.
Is It Time To Buy Altcoins?
On April 5, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost shared an intriguing on-chain insight on the X platform, highlighting the performance of various altcoin categories in relation to Bitcoin, the world’s foremost cryptocurrency. The analysis indicates that altcoins are lagging behind Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization growth.
Darkfost’s analysis involved comparing the market cap growth of Bitcoin against large-cap altcoins (the top 20) and mid-to-small cap altcoins by calculating the difference between their 365-day and 30-day moving averages (MAs). The variation between these moving averages serves as a useful indicator of growth momentum.
Generally, when the short-term moving average (30-day MA) escalates more rapidly than the long-term moving average (365-day MA), it signifies an increase in market cap growth. Conversely, when the growth momentum diminishes, it is reflected through a lagging 30-day moving average.
As illustrated in the chart above, Bitcoin is significantly outpacing both large-cap and mid-to-small-cap altcoins regarding market cap growth. Darkfost noted that this discrepancy in growth ratios mirrors levels last observed in October 2023, a period that preceded a brief rally for altcoins before Bitcoin again surged in dominance.
The analyst cautioned that when this growth ratio turns negative, it often signals the onset of a substantial correction. Historically, such a negative ratio has presented a potential buying opportunity for market entrants.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Quick Look
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $83,500, showing little fluctuation in the past 24 hours. In contrast, Ethereum’s current value is around $1,805, remaining unchanged over the same time frame.
Over the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 15%, while Ethereum saw nearly double that loss. This stark performance gap underscores the significant struggles faced by the “king of altcoins” in recent months.
