Bitcoin has been struggling near $82,000 after a recent daily decline of over 4%. While retail investors continue to panic amid the recent market turbulence, larger players are positioning themselves strategically, potentially signaling what’s next for the cryptocurrency.
Indeed, data from cryptocurrency analytics platform Santiment has revealed that Bitcoin’s whale and shark wallets have experienced several pivotal shifts over the past six months, indicating a significant influence on the market’s direction.
A Market Turning Point?
According to data compiled by Santiment, wallets holding 10 or more BTC began accumulating heavily around October 12, coinciding with the start of Bitcoin’s latest bull rally. This trend continued until late December, at which point activity paused during the holiday dip.
However, accumulation resumed strongly on January 12, about a week before Bitcoin achieved its all-time high of $109,000—suggesting these large holders anticipated the rally’s peak.
Notably, from mid-February, whales and sharks began to offload their holdings, a move that aligned closely with a broader market downturn, resulting in a decline in Bitcoin’s price as retail traders were initially encouraged by temporary price bounces. Nevertheless, recent data indicates a renewed phase of accumulation.
Since March 3, key players have collectively added approximately 4,846 BTC back into their wallets, even as retail sentiment remains highly bearish. While this significant re-accumulation has yet to visibly impact Bitcoin’s price, historical patterns suggest that such actions by whales and sharks often precede considerable market shifts.
If this accumulation trend continues, Santiment projects that the second half of March could usher in a meaningful recovery, potentially reversing the recent “bloodbath” following Bitcoin’s all-time high seven weeks prior.
What’s Next For Bitcoin
QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s $80,000 level is currently serving as a key support level, but prices may struggle to rise higher in the short term, as the hype surrounding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has largely been factored into the market. Traders largely expect genuine bullish momentum to return only later this year.
In the meantime, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is likely to move in tandem with stock markets, particularly as both face pressures from potential tariffs and upcoming US inflation data.
Analyst Kevin Svenson mentioned that Bitcoin has re-entered a critical zone within its weekly parabolic trend. According to Svenson, Bitcoin is still holding above last week’s lows, with no new lower low formed yet—a significant sign that the bullish structure remains largely intact.
Nonetheless, he warns that this may be Bitcoin’s final opportunity to maintain an exponentially higher low and preserve the broader uptrend. A breakdown from this point could jeopardize the parabolic momentum and lead to deeper corrections if new buyers do not step in.
Trader CrypNuevo offered a clearer stance on the current Bitcoin market structure by explaining that the ongoing price action—filling out last week’s long wick—could serve as a retest of the crucial 1-week 50 EMA, a historically reliable bull/bear market indicator now hovering around $77,000. He notes that while Bitcoin might hover around this level for weeks, a strong reaction from $77,000 will be key in determining the next move.
Until a confirmed support/resistance (S/R) flip occurs, akin to the one in March 2022, the bull market structure remains valid. CrypNuevo also indicated that Bitcoin dominance is climbing toward 63-64% as BTC/USD fills the wick, explaining the ongoing volatility in altcoins. He highlighted potential liquidity targets around $80,000 and $82,000 but ultimately anticipates a fakeout to the upside, followed by a capitulation dip to $77,000—a level from which Bitcoin could potentially bounce.
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