Recent analyses by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially double its price, reaching a cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000. This projection comes despite ongoing volatility and significant movements of Bitcoin among long-term holders, which could signal upcoming market corrections.
Key Takeaways:
- With forecasts a potential BTC price increase of 100% to 200%.
- Bitcoin’s cyclical volatility remains robust, contradicting notions of diminishing price swings.
- Long-term holders have recently moved over $4 billion in BTC, indicating possible profit-taking and warning of a subsequent price correction.
In a recent post, With presented a Bitcoin price chart that employs a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned to a power law model, indicating that BTC’s price adheres to non-random patterns over time. This model, which achieves a notable R² of 0.96, diverges from traditional exponential growth models typically applied to stocks and equities.
The analysis shows that Bitcoin’s SMA often peaks between 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline during market cycles. As of May 27, Bitcoin was valued at approximately $110,000, allowing for a projected cycle peak in the aforementioned $220,000 to $330,000 range, in line with historical overshooting behavior during bullish phases.
Furthermore, an additional graph highlights Bitcoin’s price deviations from the power law fit, showcasing sustained volatility without exponential decay in peak values. This insight challenges the prevailing belief that Bitcoin price cycles are growing less extreme, suggesting volatility will continue to be a significant trait influencing market movements.
With previously anticipated Bitcoin reaching a six-figure price by January 2025 when the asset was trading at around $60,000, and confirmed by historical analyses of market cycles, investors are cautioned to remain vigilant. A decaying peak period typically indicates a decline in returns as strategies become widely adopted, often peaking before substantial value drops precipitate profit-taking.
In the current climate, a recent report asserts that Bitcoin long-term holders have transferred approximately $4.02 billion in BTC, marking the most considerable spending volume from 1-to-5-year cohorts since February 2025. Such movements suggest a correlation between substantial spending and price peaks, with Bitcoin currently struggling to remain above the $110,000 threshold.
On a technical level, Bitcoin has established a pattern of creating higher highs and lows since bottoming out at $74,500, where new highs tend to precede periods of sideways movement before breakouts occur. Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a corrective phase, with local lows recorded at $107,300, a point previously marked as a local high.
Anonymous analysts have pointed out that BTC may be approaching the end of its current positive streak, which has lasted seven to eight weeks—historically, the longest unbroken green streak since 2013 before a pullback or consolidation.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s journey remains unpredictable, characterized by its cyclical nature and significant volatility. While projections suggest potential future growth, the current corrections and movements necessitate careful monitoring. Investors are encouraged to exercise due diligence and research before making investment decisions.
This article does not contain investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before proceeding.
