Bitcoin’s (BTC) prolonged downturn over the last two months has raised speculation about the end of the bull cycle and the onset of a bear market. While several market analysts continue to predict the cryptocurrency’s short-term price trajectory, only on-chain data and metrics can paint a clear picture.
A weekly report from the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant indicates that the Bitcoin Bull Score Model can discern whether this drawdown is a temporary correction or the starting point of a prolonged downturn. Unfortunately, this metric currently does not present a bullish scenario for BTC.
The Bull Score Model
According to CryptoQuant, the Bull Score Model evaluates the investment environment for BTC through the analysis of nine on-chain indicators and one market metric. Each metric acts as a binary indicator of market conditions and is assigned a value of 1 (bullish) or 0 (bearish) based on established rules that assess network activity, market liquidity, demand, and investor behavior.
The metrics evaluated include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, the Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). Additional indicators incorporated into the Bitcoin Bull Score Model are the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and Technical Signal.
Currently, only two out of the ten metrics – Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signal – are presenting bullish signals, indicating an overall bearish market perspective. CryptoQuant has highlighted that these conditions reflect a lack of strong fundamentals capable of supporting and sustaining any price rally or recovery.
“We can observe that the metrics have switched between bullish and bearish phases multiple times, with extended periods of green indicating strong bullish cycles and prolonged stretches of red corresponding to market conditions. Recently, a significant number of metrics have turned red, particularly since mid-February 2025,” the analytics platform has stated.
Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle is Over
Several metrics, such as the Network Activity Index, have remained bearish since December 2024, indicating a sustained reduction in network activity. Overall, these metrics reflect their most bearish state since January 2023.
The Bull Score Model quantifies the percentage of bullish metrics on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents a wholly bearish outlook and 100 depicts a completely bullish environment. Historically, during upward market trends, BTC has seen strong rallies when the Bull Score is at 60 and above. Conversely, when the Bull Score dips below 40, the cryptocurrency has regularly experienced prolonged downturns synonymous with bear markets.
Presently, Bitcoin’s Bull Score stands at 20 – the lowest level observed since January 2023 – indicating a weak investment environment and suggesting low prospects for a sustained rally in the near future.
The post Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Over? This Critical Metric Says It Might Be appeared first on CryptoPotato.
